Pre-FID Stress Test Reference
Validate before capital commitment.
This reference explains how to pressure-test the assumptions that determine whether a project remains investable under real operating conditions.
The goal is to expose the governing threshold before capital is committed.
For projects approaching pre-FID and capital allocation decisions:
- FEED / FEL stage transitions
- Board or IC approval gates
- External diligence where assumptions must be defensible
10-Second Decision Clarity
- What is this? A pre-FID stress test focused on dominant failure assumptions.
- Why now? Once capital timelines lock, hidden fragility becomes expensive to unwind.
- What if you skip it? You can advance with non-defensible assumptions and hidden downside concentration.
What the Framework Produces in 5-7 Days
- Decision posture:
Proceed / Proceed with Conditions / Do Not Proceed to FID - Dominant failure boundaries (fracture points) with threshold logic
- Downside stress impact on MFSP, NPV, ROI, and directional IRR consequence
- Capital-call blockers and explicit gate conditions
- A concise decision artifact suitable for internal review or diligence discussion
Why This Exists
Projects rarely fail in the model. They fail when assumptions meet reality.
Most models are coherent in base case and fragile in operations. We identify where the decision fails under realistic conditions, before capital is committed.
Stylized Real-Project Output (Sanitized)
- Project:
SAF Export Concept | FEED Screen | US 2026 - Decision:
Do not proceed to FID - Fracture points:
- Conversion efficiency breach below threshold
- Hydrogen delivered cost breach above threshold
- Policy-credit dependence unresolved
- Capital instruction: Hold spend to pre-FID de-risk envelope until gates close
If You Skip This Step
- You proceed with assumptions that may not be decision-defensible.
- Your downside case remains hidden inside aggregate model outputs.
- Capital is allocated before threshold breaches are made explicit.
- FID timing can outrun technical and economic validation closure.
If you skip this checkpoint, capital is exposed to non-defensible assumptions.
Reference Fit
Best fit when a pre-FID decision moment needs an explicit go/no-go boundary before money is committed.
Related References
For questions or corrections, email: jamie@insightquantix.com