Pre-FID Screening: Utilization Constraint
Decision Gate
- Threshold:
~65%effective utilization (CF_eff) - Failure regime:
Temporal Decoupling Failure Regime - Default outcome below threshold:
No-Go
Entry into this regime is not a degradation in performance. It is a loss of economic recoverability.
10-Second Screening Output
| Status | Trigger | Decision handling |
|---|---|---|
| Proceed | CF_eff >= ~85% and temporal penalty remains in low band with delivered-power viability | Advance to diligence with explicit downside testing. |
| Caution | CF_eff above structural threshold but near boundary and fragile to penalty escalation | Proceed only with contracted buffers and stress-tested downside cases. |
| Rework | Viability depends on storage oversizing, fragile support realization, or near-boundary assumptions | Redesign procurement, storage, and process integration before capital commitment. |
| No-Go | CF_eff < ~65% | Stop advancement to FID. Economic recovery is not achievable within the current architecture. |
Industrial Energy Constraint Triangle
- Vertices: Cost, Utilization, Storage, Continuity
- Rule: No system can simultaneously optimize all four vertices.
- Consequence: Violating this constraint collapses viability.
Use This Before FID
Intermittent power is not a cost advantage unless it sustains utilization above the structural threshold required by industrial systems.
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For independent evaluation inquiries: jamie@insightquantix.com